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You Do The Math - Part 2

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If you want to know why both final group matches are played simultaneously, just ask the nearest Algerian. (OK, unless you are somewhere in North Africa you probably don't have many Algerians nearby so I'll tell you why: In 1982 they were all set to qualify for the second stage of the World Cup. They just needed West Germany to fail to beat Austria. It wasn't a shock that the Germans managed this.... but the manner of their win appalled the watching World. After West Germany took an early lead both teams simply knocked the ball around for 80 minutes with no serious attempts on goal. The Spanish crowd bayed in fury, Austrian and German commentators voiced their disgust at the players but the match finished 1-0 and Algeria were dumped out of the World Cup. People had never heard of "match fixing" in those days so the result stood, but FIFA declared that all closing group matches would be played at the same time in future.)

Anyway, this World Cup has been one of the most exciting for decades and as the group stages draw to a close plenty remains to be settled. Here's how the scene is set in each group.... and which matches you mustn't miss!

Group A:
Brazil are still in danger of being eliminated but will need to lose to the hapless Cameroons if this is to be possible. It's actually in the other tie which is much more finely balanced, where Croatia really need to beat Mexico to leap frog them into the second round. Both those teams deserved so much more from their matches with the host nation but one of them will be eliminated. Unless Cameroon smash Brazil, that is...

Group B:
Two are already through, two are already out. Netherlands and Chile meet to decide who finishes top, with the losers likely to face Brazil in the next round. Incentive indeed to make it an open and high-scoring match. Although a "dead rubber", a win for Australia against disgraced Spain would be the final humilation in a forgettable World Cup for the defending champions.

Group C
It's highly unlikely Colombia will lose to Japan, let alone receive the hammering needed to force them out of first place. The story of Group C is the battle between the other three teams for the second qualifying spot. Ivory Coast are in the driving seat, with a draw against Greece likely to be enough. Greece have struggled to score, but have managed to conceed pretty well and so expect them to be steam rollered as the Ivorians find their stride. Japan will be hoping Colombia field a weakened side to allow them a last chance.

Group D:
Probably the most tense fixture of this round will be the winner-takes-all rumble between Italy and Uruguay.... though a draw is the most likely result and will suit Italy. A key factor may be if "The Luis Suarez Show" decides to continue it's run after rave reviews against England.  Like Spain's fixture with Australia, England will be desperate to redeem themselves against Costa Rica and avoid the shame of a 0-0-3 World Cup series.

Group E
The irrepressible French march on and will look to continue their free-scoring run against Ecuador. The South Americans though will be hoping for a shock win that would get them into the last 16, unless Switzerland absolutely tank the Honduras.
Most likely is that Ecuador will lose, in which case a draw is enough for the Swiss. But Ecuador were unlucky to be beaten in their opening game, and as a South American team against a European nation, they will have plenty in their favour if they are to cause an upset.

Group F:
Argentina set to finish top of Group F but could be derailed if Nigeria, who have been far from convincing, manage to get a memorable win. A draw would guarantee the Africans progression but this is looking likely to be an exercise in damage limitation. And a crucial exercise that may be, because if the Iranians get a deserved Finals win against Bosnia, then the group placings could come down to goal difference. Or worse still, a lottery . A 1-0 win for Argentina and Iran will mean that the second place between Iran and Nigeria will be decided at random. FIFA could flip a coin, or make the captains pick the highest card, but their method of choice is "the drawing of lots". I'm hoping this happens just to see what it actually means.

Group G:
This was always the most mouth-watering group and, thanks to the stunning 2-2 draws between Germany and Ghana, and then USA and Portugal, this will go down to the wire. You'll have to fancy The Efficient Germans to get the job done against the USA but this World Cup has been booby trapped for Europeans and who better to trip them up than one of their own, USA coach Jurgen Klinsmann? A draw would see both sides through and let's face it, if that nearby Algerian was now chatting with a Portuguese or Ghanaian he'd be telling them to start packing for the flight home. Goal difference looks ominous for those two countries as well but goals have been flying in and pretty much any two from four could still progress.

Group H:
Algeria must be licking their lips. An uninspiring Fabio Capello team in their final match, and their main rivals for second place up against the much-fancied and already qualified Belgians. Nothing to worry about, surely...
An honest and hard-working South Korea will do their best to beat Belgium fair and square and goals are likely to be a plenty, making this the pick of the Group H games. Just make sure you flick over in time to see the Algerians celebrate exorcising the ghosts of 1982.

Here's my pick of the final group matches - but keep that remote handy!

Group A: Croatia v Mexico
Group B: Netherlands v Chile
Group C: Ivory Coast v Greece
Group D: Italy v Uruguay
Group E: France v Ecuador
Group F: Iran v Bosnia-Hertzogovenia
Group G: Germany v USA
Group H: Belgium v South Korea


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